The Impact of Trump Import Tariff Expansion on Indonesia–U.S. Trade Stability:  A Time-Series Analysis and Policy Simulation Approach

Yudhistira Pradhipta Aryoko; Dian Indriana Hapsari

doi:10.61132/anggaran.v4i3.2624

Authors

Yudhistira Pradhipta Aryoko Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto
Dian Indriana Hapsari Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/anggaran.v4i3.2624

Keywords:

Export Elasticity, Institutional Stickiness, MFN Tariffs, Policy Feedback, U.S.–Indonesia Trade

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of U.S. import tariff escalation on Indonesia’s bilateral trade performance during 2020–2025, focusing on enacted and projected tariff policies under the Trump administration. The study examines how changes in U.S. tariff policies influence Indonesia’s export performance by considering trade volume, commodity characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions. Using monthly export data disaggregated by HS code, applied MFN tariff rates, and macroeconomic control variables, this research applies time-series regression, elasticity-based segmentation, interaction modeling, and scenario-based policy simulations. The results show that increases in U.S. MFN tariffs are significantly associated with declines in Indonesian export volume, supporting classical trade theory. However, tariff effects were not significantly different between the Trump and Biden administrations. Furthermore, low-elasticity commodities experienced greater export volatility than high-elasticity sectors. The simulation of the proposed 2025 Trump tariff expansion did not produce statistically similar contraction effects to the 2020 trade shock. These findings provide insights into Indonesia’s trade resilience and policy adaptation strategies amid global tariff uncertainty.

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