Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Kepulauan Riau Tahun 2024

Heni Novita; Adnan Abdurrahman; Nur Aslamaturrahmah Putri; Novi Winarti

doi:10.61132/anggaran.v3i4.1982

Authors

Heni Novita Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji
Adnan Abdurrahman Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji
Nur Aslamaturrahmah Putri Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji
Novi Winarti Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/anggaran.v3i4.1982

Keywords:

economic growth, PRRB, labor market, Riau Islands, unemployment

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of the unemployment rate on economic growth in Riau Islands Province in 2024 using a descriptive–quantitative approach based on official data published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The analysis was conducted through year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter measurements of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), as well as the dynamics of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) throughout the year. The findings show that the average economic growth of the province in 2024 reached 5.02 percent, while the unemployment rate decreased from 6.94 percent in February to 6.39 percent in August. Pearson correlation analysis resulted in r = –0.98 (p < 0.05), indicating a very strong negative relationship between unemployment and GRDP growth. Meanwhile, the simple linear regression model produced the equation Ŷ = 5.45 – 0.22X with an R² of 0.96, implying that 96 percent of the variation in economic growth can be explained by changes in the unemployment rate. These findings are consistent with Okun’s Law, suggesting that increased industrial and trade activities in the province contribute to reducing unemployment. The study concludes that strengthening sectoral job creation, improving labor productivity, and enhancing labor market monitoring are crucial to support inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the Riau Islands Province.

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