Analisis Penduduk dan Dampaknya terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kota Tual 2012 – 2024

Hasni Zubaidah Tamher; Teddy Ch. Leasiwal; Andre Sapthu

doi:10.61132/anggaran.v4i1.2503

Authors

Hasni Zubaidah Tamher Universitas Pattimura
Teddy Ch. Leasiwal Universitas Pattimura
Andre Sapthu Universitas Pattimura

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/anggaran.v4i1.2503

Keywords:

Economic Development, Labor Force Participation, Population Growth, Regression Analysis, Urbanization

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of population growth, the labor force participation rate, and the level of urbanization on economic development in Tual City during the 2012–2024 period. A quantitative approach using multiple linear regression (Ordinary Least Squares/OLS) was employed to examine the relationships among the variables. The dependent variable was economic development, measured by real Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, while the independent variables consisted of population growth, the labor force participation rate, and the level of urbanization. Secondary data were obtained from official publications issued by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for Tual City and Maluku Province throughout the observation period. The results indicate that the labor force participation rate and urbanization have positive and significant effects on economic development, whereas population growth has a negative but statistically insignificant effect. These findings suggest that improvements in labor productivity and the concentration of the population in urban areas play a greater role in promoting regional economic growth than overall population growth. Therefore, development policies in Tual City should focus on improving the quality of human resources, strengthening productive sectors, and promoting balanced development across areas to transform demographic potential into sustainable economic strength.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdussamad, H. Z., SIK, M. S., & Patta Rapanna, S. E. (2023). Pusaran Kemiskinan Dalam Perspektif Pelayanan Publik: The Vircle Of Poverty From A Public Service Perspective. Syakir Media Press.

Adeleye, B. N., Bengana, I., Boukhelkhal, A., Shafiq, M. M., & Abdulkareem, H. K. K. (2022). Does human capital tilt the population-economic growth dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African countries. Social Indicators Research, 162(2), 863–883.

Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Kotschy, R., Prettner, K., & Schünemann, J. (2024). Health and economic growth: reconciling the micro and macro evidence. World Development, 178, 106575.

Cholifihani, M., & Septiavin, Q. (2025). Implementation of Population Policy Towards Indonesia’s Golden Vision 2045: Strengths and Future Challenges. Neo Journal of Economy and Social Humanities, 4(4), 671–682.

Dissanayake, S., Mudalige, P., Hoang, N., & Leu, S. (2026). Population Ageing: Implications for Economic Growth and Fiscal Sustainability. Australian Economic Papers.

Esara, E. (2026). The Effect of Population Dynamics on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Disaggregate Study.

Gaikwad, R. S. (2026). An Unmanaged Population of India Replicates Cancer Without a Cure.

Grover, A., Lall, S., & Maloney, W. (2022). Place, productivity, and prosperity: Revisiting spatially targeted policies for regional development. World Bank Publications.

Jain, N., Goli, S., & Jana, A. (2025). Population age structural transition, demographic dividend and economic growth in India. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 12(1), 1–13.

Kotschy, R., & Bloom, D. E. (2023). Population aging and economic growth: from demographic dividend to demographic drag?

Malthus, T. (2023). An essay on the principle of population. In British Politics and the Environment in the Long Nineteenth Century (pp. 77–84). Routledge.

Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). The contributions of demographic factors to economic growth. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 16(1), 219–229.

Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71–S102.

Sairmaly, F. A. (2023). Human capital development and economic growth: A literature review on information technology investment, education, skills, and productive labour. Jurnal Minfo Polgan, 12(1), 679–693.

Sivathas, K. (2026). Demographic Dynamics and International Trade: Stylized Facts and Theoretical Insights. Journal of Economic Surveys.

Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.

Zavala, M. E. C. (2022). The demographic transition. Demographic Dynamics and Development, 1.