Pengaruh Produksi Padi, Luas Panen, Nilai Tukar Petani dan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin terhadap Indeks Ketahanan Pangan di Indonesia Tahun 2020-2024

Windi Octaviani; Dede Ruslan

doi:10.61132/anggaran.v4i3.2572

Authors

Windi Octaviani Universitas Negeri Medan
Dede Ruslan Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/anggaran.v4i3.2572

Keywords:

Farmer Exchange Rate, Food Security Index, Harvested Area, Paddy Production, Poor Population

Abstract

Food security is an important component of sustainable development and social welfare, yet disparities in food security across provinces in Indonesia remain evident. This study aims to examine the effects of paddy production, harvested area, farmer exchange rate, and the number of poor people on the Food Security Index across provinces in Indonesia. The study employs a quantitative associative approach using secondary panel data from 34 provinces over the 2020–2024 period, yielding 170 observations. Data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia and the National Food Agency and analyzed using panel data regression. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effect Model was selected as the most appropriate estimation model. The results indicate that paddy production has a negative and statistically insignificant effect on the Food Security Index (p = 0.5346), while harvested area has a negative and significant effect (p = 0.0018). The farmer exchange rate has a positive and significant effect (p = 0.0000), whereas the number of poor people has a positive but statistically insignificant effect (p = 0.0956). Simultaneously, all four variables significantly affect the Food Security Index, with a Prob(F-statistic) of 0.0000 and an adjusted R-squared of 0.9669. These findings imply that improvements in food security are closely associated with agricultural resource utilization and farmer welfare, while broader socioeconomic conditions should also be considered in policy formulation. Strengthening agricultural productivity, improving farmer welfare, and developing province-specific food security policies are therefore important for enhancing food security in Indonesia.

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