Paradoks Produktivitas dan Jebakan Sumber Daya Alam: Ketidakselarasan Transformasi Struktural antara Output dan Tenaga Kerja di Sumatera Selatan (2015–2024)

Sabam Syahputra Manurung; Mardalena Mardalena; Muhammad Subardin

doi:10.61132/jepi.v4i2.2526

Authors

Sabam Syahputra Manurung Universitas Sriwijaya
Mardalena Mardalena Universitas Sriwijaya
Muhammad Subardin Universitas Sriwijaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/jepi.v4i2.2526

Keywords:

Downstream Strategy, Dutch Disease, Energy Elasticity, Mining Sector, Structural Transformation

Abstract

This study aims to diagnose the symptoms of Dutch disease in South Sumatra through an analysis of the misalignment between sectoral output and labor absorption within the structural transformation framework from 2015–2024. Using constant-price GRDP, Sakernas labor data, Location Quotient (SLQ & DLQ) analysis, labor productivity, and employment elasticity, the study reveals three key findings. First, South Sumatra's structural transformation deviates from the normal pattern: the decline in agriculture was not accompanied by an increase in the stagnant manufacturing sector, but rather by persistent mining dominance and service sector expansion (premature tertiarization). Second, the average mining SLQ is 2.78 (strongly basic) while manufacturing SLQ is 0.86 (non-basic), yet the manufacturing DLQ is prospective (1.00), confirming a resource movement effect in which the mining boom hampers industrial potential. Third, mining labor productivity (IDR 1.013 billion/worker) is 34.5 times higher than that of agriculture (IDR 29.35 million), but mining absorbs only 1.88% of the workforce compared to 45.30% in agriculture. Mining employment elasticity is negative (–1.29), whereas agriculture is elastic (1.31), indicating the failure of the modern sector to absorb surplus labor. These findings underscore the urgency of downstreaming as a strategy to break the natural resource trap.

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